| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56° or above | 71% | 71¢ | 89¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 9% | 9¢ | 26¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 47° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $836 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest temperature recorded in Los Angeles will be on March 2, 2026; it matters to traders, event planners, utilities, and anyone who uses short-range temperature forecasts for operational decisions.
Los Angeles exhibits strong microclimatic variation between coastal, inland valley, and higher-elevation neighborhoods, and late-winter weather can produce anything from cool, marine-influenced nights to unusually warm or cold episodes. Historical early-March variability and the specific measurement station or dataset named in the contract are the key pieces of background context for this event.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation for which temperature-range outcome will be observed and will move as forecast models, observational updates, and synoptic conditions change; always consult the contract text to understand the precise settlement definition.
The listed close time is TBD; the platform will publish the market close and settlement schedule. Settlement typically occurs after the full local calendar day ends and when the specified official observation is available per the contract.
The exact station or dataset is defined in the market's contract terms—commonly an NWS/NOAA official station or a named local observing site—so check the contract text for the precise source and identifier used for settlement.
The contract specifies the measurement method; many markets use the minimum air temperature recorded during the local calendar day at the specified station (based on standard observational reporting), but you should confirm the exact time-aggregation rule in the market rules.
Markets follow the adjudication and data policies in the contract: settlement is based on the official data source named there, and any handling of late revisions or corrections is governed by those rules—review the settlement policy for details.
Monitor deterministic and ensemble model forecasts for incoming cold fronts or troughs, pressure-pattern shifts that alter onshore/offshore flow (marine layer strength), cloud and precipitation probability, and any forecasted Santa Ana wind events or temperature advection that could significantly change overnight minima.