| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks participants to predict the lowest air temperature recorded in Los Angeles on March 19, 2026. It matters for weather-sensitive planning, local risk management, and testing short-term climate forecasts.
Los Angeles temperatures in March can vary substantially from coastal to inland neighborhoods and are influenced by Pacific storm tracks, marine layer dynamics, and occasional cold-air intrusions. Long-term warming shifts the baseline slowly, but the single-day low on March 19, 2026 will be driven primarily by short-term synoptic weather and local microclimate conditions.
Market prices (odds) are a dynamic, collective signal about which temperature outcome traders expect given current information; they update as forecasts and observations change. For final determination, rely on the event’s specified official observing station and the platform’s settlement rules.
The contract will specify the variable (typically air temperature at a standard height), the exact observing station or network, the unit (°F or °C), and the local-time window for Mar 19, 2026; settlement uses the designated official data source listed on the event page.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature range or value as listed on the event page. The final observed temperature from the specified source is mapped to the matching outcome per the market’s resolution rules.
The platform sets the market close time (shown on the event page; currently TBD). Outcome settlement occurs after the Mar 19 observing period ends and the designated authority publishes the official observation, following the exchange’s stated procedures.
Historical March minima provide climatological context and illustrate typical variability across locations, but for a single date you should combine that baseline with current model guidance, synoptic forecasts, and local factors (cloud cover, wind, marine layer) that drive night-to-night differences.
The market’s settlement rules govern tie-breakers and contingencies—for example, using an alternate official station, a defined secondary dataset, or a prescribed rounding rule. Consult the event page’s resolution policy for the exact procedure that will apply to Mar 19, 2026.