| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which listed temperature will be recorded as the lowest temperature in Los Angeles on March 18, 2026. It matters to traders and observers who want a real‑time consensus signal about that single‑day weather outcome.
Los Angeles has a Mediterranean climate with mild March temperatures on average, but individual days can vary because of Pacific storm systems, cold-air intrusions, and local coastal influences. Short-term meteorology—including cloud cover, frontal passages, and overnight radiational cooling—typically drives day-to-day variation in minimum temperatures. This market reflects a one‑day observation, not long-term climate trends.
Market prices aggregate current expectations based on forecasts, observations, and participant information; they move as new model runs and observations arrive. Use prices as a real-time gauge of consensus while consulting official forecast products for operational decisions.
The event's rules specify the observation window (commonly the local calendar day 00:00–23:59 or a named 24‑hour observation period) and timezone; check the event description for the precise start/end times used for settlement.
The market description names the authoritative data source or station (for example a specified NOAA/NWS station or ASOS/AWOS feed); the named source in the event page is used for settlement.
Units (°F or °C) and the rounding or precision (e.g., nearest tenth or whole degree) are shown on the event page; settlement follows the unit and precision stated in the market rules.
Settlement follows the pre‑specified source and procedure in the market rules; if results are ambiguous, the market administrator or designated arbiter applies the stated dispute or tie‑breaking procedures.
Updated model runs, arrival or timing shifts of Pacific fronts, overnight cloud cover changes, marine layer depth, and any unexpected cold‑air intrusions or offshore wind events can all rapidly alter expectations and thus market pricing.