| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the lowest air temperature recorded in Los Angeles on March 17, 2026; it matters because nighttime lows affect energy demand, agriculture, outdoor events, and local operations.
Los Angeles typically has mild March nights, but synoptic-scale weather (Pacific storms, cold inland outbreaks, or offshore wind events) can produce below-typical minima. Markets like this aggregate forecasts and local observations into tradable information, allowing participants to express views on likely temperature outcomes.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which temperature band will be the day's minimum; movements typically track updates in weather models, observations, and changing local conditions rather than representing guaranteed outcomes.
The contract specifies the official data source and station (for example, a designated National Weather Service or airport station); consult the event's settlement rules on KALSHI to see the named station or dataset that will be used for settlement.
Most weather contracts use the local calendar day (00:00 to 23:59:59 local time) or specific synoptic observation times—check the event's contract language on KALSHI for the exact temporal definition used for settlement.
The market close is listed as TBD for this event; KALSHI typically closes markets before the observation window and publishes settlement after the designated data source posts official values—watch the event page for updated close and settlement timings.
Ensemble and deterministic model guidance, short-range forecasts, surface observations, satellite and radar trends, and updated synoptic analyses all cause traders to reassess likely minima; prices react to new information about cloud cover, wind shifts, and frontal timing.
Factor in spatial differences across Los Angeles (coastal moderation vs. inland basin cooling), check which station and instrument siting the contract uses, and review the market's rounding/averaging and data-quality rules—these details determine how small differences in observed temperature translate into the settled outcome.