| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in the official Los Angeles observation area will be on March 16, 2026. It matters to traders and participants who want to hedge or speculate on near-term weather outcomes and to anyone tracking short-term temperature variability in the LA region.
Los Angeles sits at the intersection of coastal, inland valley, and foothill microclimates, so overnight lows can differ substantially across short distances. Seasonal patterns, synoptic cold fronts, marine layer depth, and occasional offshore wind events all shape nightly minima; long-term climate trends have shifted baseline temperatures but day-to-day weather still dominates any single date's result.
Market prices reflect the collective view of participants about which temperature outcome is most likely given available forecasts and uncertainty; consult the event rules and the official observing source named on the market page to understand exactly what observation will determine resolution.
The precise definition — including geographic extent, observing station(s), and whether the market uses local calendar date or UTC — is provided in the event's resolution rules; participants should read the event page to see which official data source and measurement protocol will be used.
The market's event rules will name the authoritative source (for example an NWS/NOAA station or a specified cooperative station); the identity of that station matters because temperatures can vary across LA microclimates, so check the event page for the named station before trading.
Resolution typically occurs after the official daily observation for March 16 is published by the designated data source; the event page currently lists the market close as TBD, so monitor the event page for the exact closing and resolution schedule.
Rounding, binning, and the temperature scale (Fahrenheit or Celsius) are specified in the event's outcome definitions and resolution rules; consult those rules to see whether values are truncated, rounded to the nearest whole degree, or grouped into ranges.
Unexpected clearing or cloud cover changes after forecasts are issued, a late-arriving cold front, an unanticipated offshore or onshore wind shift, or localized effects (river valleys, canyons, or urban heat retention) can all push the overnight low materially away from model guidance.