| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Los Angeles on March 15, 2026 will be; outcomes resolve to the officially reported minimum temperature for that date and location. It matters for energy demand planning, transportation, outdoor event organizers, and anyone tracking short-term weather risk in the region.
Los Angeles has strong local variability due to coastal influence, valleys, and elevation differences, so nighttime minima can differ substantially across the metro area. Spring is a season of transition when cold intrusions from the interior and marine-layer effects both play a role; markets like this use a designated observing site and the contract's resolution rules to determine the official result.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders and forecasters about the likely minimum temperature, not a guarantee of the outcome. Use the market as one input alongside official forecasts and climatology when forming a view.
The contract's resolution terms specify the designated observation station and instrument used for settlement (often an official NWS/cooperative station or airport site); check the market rules or resolution policy for the named station and measurement method.
Settlement will follow the market's stated definition of the calendar day—typically the local 00:00 to 23:59 local standard or daylight time as defined in the contract—so verify the contract for exact start/end times and any UTC conversion rules.
Resolution procedures in the contract outline handling of identical values and rounding/truncation rules; consult those rules for tie-breaking methods and whether averaged or nearest-in-time measurements are used.
A strong cold-air intrusion or trough aloft combined with clear skies, light winds, and inland cold-air pooling would favor unusually low minima, while persistent marine-layer clouds or strong onshore flow would suppress extreme nighttime cooling at coastal sites.
Use historical normals and recent seasonality to set a baseline for expected minima, then monitor deterministic and ensemble model guidance, satellite/observational trends, and official NWS forecasts for the latest signals about synoptic changes and nighttime cooling potential; always cross-check the guidance against the market's designated observation site and settlement rules.