| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest observed air temperature in Los Angeles will be on March 14, 2026. It matters for short-term weather risk management, planning outdoor activities, and testing how forecasts and local microclimates translate into realized conditions.
Los Angeles has a Mediterranean climate with significant day-to-day variability in spring; March is a transitional month when late-season Pacific storms or clear radiational nights can both occur. Historical lows on single dates vary by location within the metropolitan area because of coastal moderation, basin trapping, and inland valley exposures. Market resolution depends on the specific observation site and data source named by the platform.
Market prices reflect traders' collective expectations about the official, recorded minimum temperature for the specified site and date and will move as new observational and model information arrives. Use the market's stated resolution source and time window to interpret what each outcome represents.
The market resolves to the lowest reported air temperature recorded for the designated observation site or dataset during the 24-hour period of March 14, 2026 (local time). The market page identifies the data source and resolution rules that determine the official value.
The market's resolution section lists the exact station or geographic definition (for example a named NOAA/NWS station, airport sensor, or municipal dataset). That definition determines which microclimate's minimum is used — check the market details before trading.
The posted close time on the market page governs when trading stops (currently listed as TBD). Final resolution follows publication of the official daily summary from the specified data source; that publication and any verification steps can take from hours to a couple of days after March 14.
Short-range numerical model updates (operational runs of GFS/ECMWF and high-resolution ensembles), changes in satellite/radar-observed cloud trends, surface station reports, and official NWS forecasts or advisories will be the main information catalysts for price movement.
Coastal neighborhoods are moderated by the ocean and typically have milder lows, while inland valleys and higher-elevation basins can experience colder nights. Because the market uses a specified observation site, the relevant microclimate is whatever that site represents — verify that site to align expectations with local conditions.