| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest observed temperature in Los Angeles will be on March 13, 2026; it matters for traders and weather-interested users who want to speculate or hedge around a specific calendar-day temperature outcome. Outcomes track a single, specified observation and are resolved according to the contract's official data source.
Los Angeles has a Mediterranean climate with substantial day-to-day variability in early spring driven by coastal influences, synoptic storm systems, and local wind patterns. March sits in the seasonal transition, so temperatures can be moderated by marine layers or shifted by late-season cold fronts or offshore wind events. Microclimates across the Los Angeles basin and the choice of observing station can produce materially different low-temperature observations on the same date.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of participants and update as new forecast and observational information arrives; they should be read as time-varying indicators of consensus sentiment rather than fixed forecasts. Always check the contract rules for the exact observation and resolution protocol used to interpret prices correctly.
The precise definition — including the local calendar day window, time zone, observing station or dataset, and any rounding rules — is specified in the contract's resolution rules; traders should consult the event page or contract text for the authoritative definition used to resolve this market.
The market's contract lists the official source or station(s) used for resolution; common sources include National Weather Service stations or other specified official monitoring sites, so confirm the exact source named on the event page because different sites can report different lows.
This market's close time is listed as TBD on the event header; the platform will announce a closing time prior to resolution. The official lowest temperature is typically available after the full local calendar day has completed and the designated data provider publishes final observations per the contract.
Tie-breaking procedures depend on the contract resolution rules; the contract may specify a single primary station, an averaging method, or a named authoritative dataset to resolve identical readings—check the contract text for the exact tie-resolution protocol.
Short-term forecasts and model runs that update the timing and strength of coastal flows, approaching fronts, cloud cover overnight, and any expected offshore wind events will most directly influence trader expectations for the lowest temperature on that specific date.