| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest observed air temperature in Los Angeles will be on March 12, 2026; it matters for weather-sensitive planning, energy demand, and local impacts such as frost risk and heating needs.
Los Angeles has strong local variability between coastal, basin, and inland neighborhoods, and early March can feature either mild marine influence or cooler intrusions from Pacific systems. Long-term trends (urbanization and climate change) shift seasonal baselines, but day-to-day outcomes are driven by synoptic weather patterns and local nighttime processes.
Market odds reflect the collective expectations of participants and update as new forecast data and observations arrive; they are best read as a dynamic snapshot of how traders and available meteorological information view the likely range of temperatures.
The market's resolution rules list the authoritative data source and station or aggregation method; check the event page for that clause — markets typically use an official National Weather Service/NOAA station or other specified observing site(s).
The contest uses observed air (dry-bulb) temperature measured in standard instrumentation and shelter; wind chill, heat index, and other derived 'feels like' metrics are not used unless the resolution text explicitly states otherwise.
Resolution occurs after the calendar day closes and the official observing agency publishes the daily temperature summary for the specified station(s); the market will follow the timing and source described in its resolution rules.
Watch frontal passages, model guidance for cloud cover, onshore/offshore wind trends, surface observations the night before, and any advisory from local weather offices — these factors strongly influence nocturnal cooling and the minimum temperature.
Track short-range and ensemble model forecasts, updated hourly observations from target stations, satellite and radar for cloud and precipitation trends, and official NWS discussions; markets typically react quickly to new, high-confidence forecast shifts, so manage position size and timing accordingly.