| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53° to 54° | 84% | 86¢ | 92¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 55° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 46° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 19% | 10¢ | 19¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will contain the lowest air temperature recorded in Los Angeles on March 11, 2026. It matters for traders and observers because it aggregates expectations about local weather conditions and short‑term climate variability.
Los Angeles has pronounced microclimates—coastal marine influence, inland valleys, and higher elevation foothills—that regularly produce very different nighttime lows across short distances. Historical variability on a single date can reflect synoptic patterns (cold fronts, offshore Santa Ana winds, or persistent marine layer) and the specific observation site used for settlement. Markets like this use those physical drivers and official observations to form tradable outcomes.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which predefined temperature range will be the observed minimum; they are not official measurements. For final resolution, consult the contract’s resolution clause to see which observing station, time window, and source will be used.
The contract’s resolution clause defines the official data source and station; consult the event description on the platform for the named observing location (for example, a specified NWS/NOAA station, airport METAR, or local climate station) and use that source for final determination.
Resolution typically specifies a local time window tied to the calendar date (for example, a 24‑hour local day or a set observation cycle); check the contract text to see the exact start and end times that will be used for measuring the minimum.
The six outcomes correspond to predefined temperature bins or exact values listed in the contract; the platform applies the observed minimum to the appropriate bin using any stated rounding or inclusive/exclusive rules, so review those boundaries before trading.
Microclimates cause large differences over short distances: coastal stations often remain milder overnight, inland valleys and higher elevations cool more, and canyon shading can trap cold; which outcome wins depends heavily on whether the official station is coastal, inland, or elevated.
Settlement usually occurs after the designated observing authority releases its daily summary or quality‑controlled data; the platform will post the settlement source and timing—check the event page and the specified data provider (e.g., NWS/NOAA) for the official published minimum.