| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57° or above | 77% | 63¢ | 77¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 2% | 2¢ | 14¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 37% | 28¢ | 37¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 48° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $811 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest temperature recorded in Los Angeles on March 10, 2026 will be; it matters to traders and stakeholders who use short-term weather outcomes for hedging, planning, or speculation.
Early March in Los Angeles typically sits in the transition from winter to spring, so overnight lows are often mild near the coast and cooler inland. Local microclimates, elevation changes, and the presence or absence of large-scale cold air outbreaks all produce meaningful day-to-day variability.
Market prices represent collective expectations about which outcome will occur, incorporating recent forecasts, observations, and trader risk preferences; interpret prices as a real-time synthesis of available information rather than a fixed forecast.
Settlement follows the resolution source and station specified on the contract page; it will use the official daily minimum reported by that designated observing station for March 10, 2026 as defined in the event terms.
The market resolves after the official daily observations for March 10, 2026 are published by the designated data source named in the contract; the platform posts final settlement once that source issues the daily summary or verification.
The contract explicitly defines the location used for settlement—typically a specific official weather station (for example an airport or downtown station); consult the event details to see which station represents 'Los Angeles' for this market.
Climatology provides a baseline expectation—early March lows are generally mild along the coast and cooler inland—but short-term synoptic conditions can cause significant departures, so combine historical context with current forecast models and observations.
Watch official NWS/NOAA forecasts and discussions, short-range numerical models (e.g., ECMWF, GFS), local airport and mesonet observations, satellite and radar for frontal timing, and surface wind and cloud forecasts that affect overnight radiational cooling in the 24–72 hours prior.