| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official minimum temperature recorded in Los Angeles on April 21, 2026. It allows participants to hedge against or speculate on specific meteorological outcomes in a region known for its Mediterranean climate.
April in Los Angeles typically features mild spring weather, but temperatures can vary significantly based on marine layer influence, atmospheric pressure, and inland versus coastal thermal gradients. Historical data shows that spring temperatures in Southern California are subject to both seasonal norms and broader climate patterns such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. By analyzing historical climatological records for late April, participants can assess the likelihood of temperature ranges.
The market prices reflect the collective anticipation of weather models and historical climate trends, serving as a pulse for expectation regarding regional temperature deviations.
The official temperature is typically derived from data recorded at the NWS-sanctioned Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) station or the equivalent official city benchmark.
The lowest temperature is defined as the minimum dry-bulb temperature recorded during the 24-hour calendar period of April 21, 2026.
No, the market relies on the single official point of observation rather than the diverse microclimates found throughout the broader Los Angeles metropolitan area.
Significant deviations from seasonal norms, such as unexpected heatwaves or unseasonable cold snaps, would directly shift the minimum temperature into the higher or lower outcome buckets.
In the event of reporting gaps, the market will utilize verified supplemental data from the National Weather Service or the designated primary source specified in the market rules.