| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily minimum temperature recorded at Houston's primary observation site on April 21, 2026. Predicting specific weather events is essential for sectors like energy, agriculture, and logistics that rely on precise temperature forecasting.
Houston typically experiences moderate spring weather in late April, though the region is susceptible to sudden shifts driven by Gulf of Mexico moisture and continental cold fronts. Historical weather data for this date shows significant variance, ranging from cool mornings to warmer spring temperatures. Meteorologists rely on long-range climate models and historical averages to estimate deviations from the seasonal norm.
The market prices reflect the collective anticipation of how much the actual low temperature will deviate from historical averages on that specific date.
The official temperature is typically sourced from the National Weather Service station located at George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH).
The market resolves based on the official, final recorded daily minimum temperature as reported by the designated primary meteorological source.
No, this market tracks the actual air temperature (dry-bulb temperature) measured by standard thermometers, not the 'feels-like' index.
April serves as a transition month where the remnants of winter cold fronts often clash with increasing spring heat, leading to wider temperature swings.
The market will resolve based on data provided by the relevant national weather authority or designated secondary official records for that specific location.