| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39° or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 30° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 35° to 36° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 31° to 32° | 6% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 33° to 34° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks what the official lowest air temperature measured for Denver on March 9, 2026 will be; it aggregates trader views about that single-day meteorological outcome. Such markets are useful for hedging weather exposure, comparing forecast sources, and summarizing crowd expectations for a precise observation.
Denver in early March sits in a transition season with high day-to-day variability: Pacific storm systems, intrusions of continental Arctic air, and the influence of the nearby Rocky Mountains all contribute to rapid swings in temperature. Local factors — elevation, urban-rural contrasts, snow cover and upslope/downsloping winds — have historically produced large differences between forecast runs and final observed daily minima.
Market prices reflect the collective information and beliefs of participants (forecasts, model runs, local observations) and update as new information arrives. Treat prices as a real-time consensus signal that can change with new meteorological data, not as a guaranteed outcome.
Consult the event's settlement rules on the market page: they specify the exact observing station (e.g., an NWS/NOAA station) and data source used for settlement. The market will use that designated official observation as published by the named provider.
The six outcomes correspond to predefined temperature ranges or buckets listed on the event page; check the event description or settlement criteria for the precise numeric boundaries that determine which outcome settles.
The event page indicates trading close (currently listed as TBD); settlement typically occurs after the official daily observation is published and any verification window in the rules has elapsed — check the market page for the exact closing and settlement timeline once posted.
Settlement procedures are defined in the market's rules: they usually specify alternatives such as using a backup station, using the nearest official source, or applying a tie/missing-data policy. Refer to the settlement rules on the event page for the precise fallback method.
Monitor operational model guidance (e.g., latest global models and high-resolution convection-allowing runs), the NWS/NOAA local forecasts for Denver, satellite and radar for frontal timing, upper-air soundings for stability, and recent surface observations and snow cover reports across the Denver metro and nearby foothills.