| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33° or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
| 24° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 29° to 30° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 31° to 32° | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 25° to 26° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 27° to 28° | 4% | 0¢ | 6¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will contain Denver's lowest observed temperature on March 8, 2026. It matters because temperature extremes influence energy demand, travel safety, and local weather risk assessments.
Denver is a high‑elevation city with large day‑to‑night temperature swings and typically variable early‑March conditions as transitional spring air masses compete. March 8, 2026 coincides with the U.S. daylight‑saving time change, which can affect how the local observation window is defined and interpreted. Historical March 8s in Denver have ranged from late‑winter cold snaps to milder springlike days, so outcomes depend strongly on large‑scale weather patterns in the days before the date.
Market odds reflect the collective assessment of traders given available model output, observations, and risk preferences and update as new information arrives. Use the market as a real‑time indicator of how expectations shift, but check the contract text for settlement rules and the official data source.
The market’s contract specifies the official data source and reporting station; many weather contracts reference National Weather Service / NOAA observations from the designated Denver station (often the Denver International Airport sensor), but you must check this market's contract text to confirm the exact station and dataset used for settlement.
Settlement uses the time window and time zone defined in the contract; because March 8, 2026 is the U.S. spring DST transition (a 23‑hour local day), the contract will state whether local standard time, local wall clock time, or UTC is used—confirm the contract to see how the DST shift is handled.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined temperature range shown on the market page; after the official observations are released, the recorded lowest temperature for the specified station and window is matched to the outcome range and that outcome is settled as the winner per the contract’s settlement rules.
This market lists its close time on the platform (currently TBD); trading typically closes at or before the start of the observation window, and final settlement occurs after the official observations are published and any quality‑control actions by the reporting agency are completed—check the market page for exact close and settlement timing.
Settlement delays or disputes can arise from missing or flagged station data, post‑event adjustments by the reporting agency, ambiguity about the designated station or time window (especially due to DST), or contract language requiring multiple data sources—refer to the contract’s dispute and late‑data provisions for how such cases are handled.