| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16° or below | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| 17° to 18° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 25° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 21° to 22° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 19° to 20° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 23° to 24° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome will contain Denver’s lowest recorded temperature on March 7, 2026. It matters because it aggregates trader expectations about short-term weather and can be used to hedge or speculate on temperature-sensitive risks.
Early March in Denver is a transitional period with rapid swings driven by large-scale storm systems, mountain influence, and occasional warm Chinook events. Historical observations show substantial day-to-day variability, so market consensus will reflect incoming model runs, observations, and expert adjustments as the date approaches.
Market prices reflect the collective assessment of participants and will update as new weather model guidance, observations, and forecasts arrive. Use prices as a real-time signal of how the community expects conditions to evolve rather than a fixed prediction.
The market page specifies the exact close time; if it is listed as TBD, monitor the market for an update. Platform rules determine final close and any last‑minute trading windows.
Settlement uses the data source named in the contract’s settlement clause—typically the official NOAA/NWS observation for Denver (the station specified on the market page). Always verify the market’s documentation to confirm the exact station and dataset.
The six outcomes are the mutually exclusive temperature bins or categories listed on the market listing. Each outcome corresponds to a defined range; the observed official low will be mapped to the single outcome whose range contains it.
A deep cold-air intrusion or radiationally driven clear calm night could push temperatures much colder, while a warm Pacific front or strong Chinook downslope event could produce much warmer lows. Snow cover, cloudiness, wind, and the exact timing of frontal passages also play major roles.
The contract’s settlement rules describe contingency procedures—commonly relying on the named primary dataset first and then a pre-specified alternate (for example, an adjacent official station or archived NWS dataset) if the primary is unavailable. For disputes, consult the platform’s rulebook and support channels for the official resolution process.