| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23° or below | 31% | 35¢ | 39¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 32° or above | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 30° to 31° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 28° to 29° | 10% | 9¢ | 12¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 24° to 25° | 28% | 29¢ | 33¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 26° to 27° | 21% | 14¢ | 17¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete outcome will correspond to the lowest observed air temperature in Denver on March 6, 2026. Outcomes inform trading around short-term weather risk and are useful to people and businesses exposed to temperature-sensitive operations.
Early March in Denver is a transitional time when both late-winter cold-air outbreaks and moderating Pacific influences are possible; mountain terrain and diurnal heating/cooling produce large day-to-day swings. Historical March conditions have included everything from sub-freezing nights after Arctic intrusions to milder periods, so forecasts can shift substantially in the days before the date.
Market prices and odds reflect traders’ collective expectations and update as weather model guidance and observations change; they are not guarantees. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific temperature bin or rule listed on the market page, so interpret prices as relative market belief about which bin will contain the lowest reported temperature.
The market will resolve to the official observing station or dataset specified in the market rules; this is commonly a National Weather Service/NOAA observation for Denver or the station explicitly named on the market page. Check the market description for the resolving source.
The market listing defines six mutually exclusive outcomes (temperature bins or intervals) that cover all possible observations; consult the market page for the exact bin boundaries and any tie-resolution rules.
The market uses the date definition stated in its rules—typically the local date in Denver (Mountain Time) for the 24-hour period beginning 00:00 and ending 23:59:59 on March 6, 2026. Confirm the market description for the exact time-zone and period definition.
Resolution follows the specific station or dataset named in the market’s resolution clause; if multiple sources are referenced, the market description explains which takes precedence or how discrepancies are handled.
The market page will state the trade-close time (currently TBD) and the resolution process; resolution generally occurs after the official observation for the specified date is available and any exchange-defined verification period has passed.