| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29° to 30° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 35° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 31° to 32° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 26° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 33° to 34° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 27° to 28° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market trades on the lowest air temperature observed in Denver on March 4, 2026. It matters for traders tracking short‑term weather risk, event planning, energy demand forecasts, and local climate signals.
Early March in Denver sits in a transitional season with large day‑to‑day variability driven by mountain weather, Arctic intrusions, and occasional warm downslope (chinook) events. Historical records show Denver can experience both late‑winter cold snaps and rapid warming, so small shifts in the synoptic pattern can substantially change the expected overnight low. The market aggregates public forecasts and new observations to reflect that evolving information.
Market prices represent collective expectations about the outcome and update as new model runs, observations, and forecasts arrive; interpret them as real‑time signals rather than definitive measurements. Resolution will follow the exchange’s stated data source and settlement rules listed on the event page.
The event’s settlement rules on the platform specify the official data source and station used for resolution; many weather markets rely on the designated NOAA/NWS official station for the city. Check the event page for the exact station name and whether the reading is taken from an airport, COOP site, or other official source.
The exchange defines the applicable time window in the event description (for example, a local calendar day or a fixed UTC period). Confirm the timezone and exact start/end times on the event page to know whether the market uses local Denver time or another standard.
The market close time is listed on the event page; if it is currently TBD the platform will announce it before trading ends. Official resolution typically follows publication of the authoritative daily temperature summary from the designated observing agency and may take additional time for verification — check the event rules for the expected resolution timeline.
Rounding, bin boundaries, and tie‑breaking procedures are specified in the market’s settlement rules. Review the event description to see whether temperatures are rounded to whole degrees, tenths, or assigned to discrete outcome ranges, and how identical values are resolved.
Late model runs showing a strengthening cold advection or an incoming warm downslope event, observed changes in snow cover, satellite and radar evidence of cloud clearing, and official surface observations from nearby stations can all materially shift expectations. Overnight actual temperature reports during the pre‑event period will also update traders’ expectations quickly.