| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33° or below | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| 34° to 35° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 42° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete outcome will contain the lowest air temperature recorded in Denver on March 3, 2026. It matters because single-day temperature extremes influence energy loads, travel disruptions, and short-term local risk assessments.
Early March in Denver is meteorologically active: Pacific storm systems, arctic intrusions, and downslope Chinook events can all alter temperatures quickly. Denver's high elevation and proximity to the Rocky Mountains increase day-to-day variability relative to lower-elevation locations.
Market odds aggregate traders' information and expectations about which pre-defined temperature bin will contain the official low; use them as a dynamic signal of consensus rather than a fixed forecast.
The market's contract description lists the official observation source used for resolution; check the event page for that exact station (commonly an NWS/NOAA ASOS at the official Denver reporting site).
Resolution timing follows the market's published rules — many weather contracts resolve after the 24-hour local or UTC day ends and when the official daily summary from the cited data provider is available; consult the event page for the precise resolution schedule.
Each outcome represents a predefined temperature range or bin shown on the event page; the lowest whole-degree observation recorded at the specified station during the defined observation window determines the winning bin.
Clear skies, light winds, recent snow cover, and an influx of cold continental or arctic air increase the chance of a particularly low overnight minimum; conversely, cloud cover, precipitation, or Chinook winds act to moderate lows.
Verify against the official data source named in the contract: check NWS/NOAA daily climate summaries, the ASOS/METAR hourly observations for the cited Denver station, the local NWS Denver office products, or the NCEI/NOAA archived hourly data used by the market.