| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest recorded temperature in Denver will be on March 29, 2026. It matters to participants who trade on short‑term weather outcomes and to stakeholders sensitive to overnight cold (energy, agriculture, events).
Late March in Denver is a transitional period when continental cold air can still produce freezing nights while Pacific systems can bring milder conditions or precipitation. Variability is driven by large‑scale pattern shifts (e.g., Arctic intrusions or Pacific storms), local elevation and snow cover, and day‑to‑day mesoscale effects. Historical late‑March extremes exist, but each year's synoptic setup determines the realized low.
Market odds aggregate traders' information and forecasts into a real‑time consensus about expected outcomes; they move as new model runs, observations, and forecasts arrive. Treat odds as a dynamic summary of available information, not as fixed predictions.
The market will settle using the official measurement specified in the contract rules on the market page; exchanges commonly use the National Weather Service observation at Denver International Airport (DEN) or a designated official station—check the contract text for the precise station and measurement method.
The settlement window is defined in the market's contract rules—typical choices are the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time) or a specified 24‑hour UTC interval; confirm the exact window on the market's rule page.
Traders typically monitor operational global models (e.g., ECMWF, GFS), short‑range ensembles and high‑resolution mesoscale models, National Weather Service forecasts, surface observations, upper‑air soundings, and satellite/radar updates—these inputs drive market adjustments for this event.
Snow cover enhances radiative cooling and tends to favor colder overnight lows, while increased cloudiness and stronger winds generally keep temperatures milder; traders incorporate forecasts of snow, clouds, and wind into pricing for this event.
Settlement follows the exchange's published settlement and dispute policies; the contract will specify fallback procedures (e.g., alternate official stations or use of initial vs. revised observations) and any arbitration process—review the market's settlement clause for details.