| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° to 35° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the lowest air temperature recorded in Denver on March 28, 2026; it matters because short-term temperature extremes affect energy demand, travel safety, and local operations. Market prices synthesize available forecasts and observations into a single, tradable view of likely outcomes.
Denver's late‑March weather is highly variable due to its elevation at the Front Range and frequent passage of Pacific and continental air masses; seasonal snowstorms and rapid warming can both occur. The market lists six outcomes (temperature bands) to capture that day‑to‑day variability; long‑term warming shifts averages but does not eliminate short‑term swings.
In this context, market odds are a dynamic signal of collective expectations about which temperature band will contain the day's minimum; they update as weather models, observations, and forecasts change. Use them alongside official forecasts and real‑time observations rather than as a standalone forecast.
Resolution typically relies on the official NOAA/NWS observing station specified in the market rules (markets covering Denver often use Denver International Airport), but you should check this market's rules to confirm the designated station.
The lowest temperature is usually the minimum air temperature recorded during the local calendar day (00:00:00 to 23:59:59 local time, accounting for daylight saving if in effect); confirm the market's resolution policy for exact boundaries.
Settlement generally uses official observational data from NWS/NOAA or the specified reporting station; final settlement may await quality‑controlled or corrected data and thus can take several days — check the platform's stated timeline.
If the designated station has instrument problems or relocations, the market's dispute and adjudication rules apply; platforms typically reference official NWS corrections or an alternate nearby station as defined in their resolution policy.
Monitor short‑range NWP model runs, overnight temperature trends, cloud and snow‑cover forecasts, and realtime observations from the designated station; update positions as new model ensembles and surface observations change, and always cross‑check with the market's stated resolution criteria.