| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 33° to 34° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° to 36° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which range will contain the lowest air temperature recorded in Denver on March 27, 2026, letting traders express expectations about that day’s coldest reading. The outcome matters for energy demand, outdoor plans, and short-term weather risk assessment.
Denver sits at high elevation on the eastern slope of the Rockies and experiences strong day-to-day variability in late March as winter transitions to spring. Local effects such as Chinook (downslope) winds, mountain-induced cold air intrusions, and rapid changes in cloud cover and snowpack historically produce wide temperature swings this time of year. The market’s settlement will rely on the official observing station and procedures defined in the contract.
Market odds reflect the collective expectation about which temperature bracket will be the observed minimum for Denver on that calendar date; they update as model forecasts, observations, and surface conditions evolve. Odds are not guarantees—treatment of revisions, ties, and the exact observation source is governed by the market’s contract rules.
Settlement uses the authoritative observation source and station specified in the contract (commonly the NWS/NOAA official station for Denver); consult the market contract for the precise station identifier and data source.
The contract defines the geographic observing station; many contracts use Denver International Airport (DEN) or the official NWS COOP station—check the event’s contract text to see which site is binding.
The market will use the exact local-date period specified in the contract—typically 00:00 to 24:00 local time (Mountain Time) on March 27, 2026—confirm the contract for the official time definition.
Markets generally use the final official archived observation from the designated source as of the time specified by the contract; if revisions occur, the contract explains whether preliminary or corrected values govern settlement.
Rapid arrival of a cold frontal passage, an unexpected Chinook wind event, sudden clearing or cloud buildup overnight, new snowfall, or changes in wind speed that alter boundary-layer mixing can all materially change the overnight minimum.