| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the lowest observed in Denver on March 26, 2026; it matters to traders and weather-sensitive stakeholders because late-March temperatures can affect energy demand, travel, and outdoor plans. The outcome condenses meteorological uncertainty into tradeable outcomes tied to an official observed minimum temperature.
Late March in Denver is a transitional period with frequent swings: cold continental air masses can produce sub-freezing lows, while downslope Chinook events can produce unusually mild nights. Local factors — elevation, proximity to the Rockies, recent snow cover, and synoptic-scale patterns — all drive large day-to-day variability that has produced both late-season frosts and mild evenings in past years.
Market odds reflect the collective expectations of participants given current forecasts and information; they move as new weather model runs and observations arrive. Treat odds as a real-time consensus signal rather than a fixed forecast, and check contract details for the official settlement source and rules.
The contract will specify the authoritative public meteorological source used for settlement (for example, a National Weather Service / NOAA station observation for Denver); consult the market's contract terms to see the exact source and station name that will be used.
The market's contract defines the exact time window, but typically 'on Mar 26' refers to the local calendar day in Denver (00:00:00 through 23:59:59 local time as specified); check the contract to confirm local time handling and any UTC conversion rules.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature bin shown on the market page; after the official minimum temperature for the defined period is published by the specified source, the single outcome whose bin contains that reported minimum is declared the winner per the contract resolution rules.
The market's close time is listed as TBD; settlement typically occurs after the official observation is published by the specified source and according to any contract-specified verification and waiting period — check the market page and contract for exact closing and settlement timelines.
Consider climatological normals for late March, frequency of arctic intrusions vs. Chinook episodes in recent years, recent surface conditions (snow cover), and the latest synoptic forecasts from operational models — those factors have historically driven whether Denver experiences a cold low or a mild night late in March.