| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of the listed outcomes will be the lowest air temperature recorded in Denver on March 25, 2026. The result matters for weather risk management, agricultural planning, and for participants trading on short-term climate outcomes.
Late March in Denver is a transitional period with large day-to-day variability driven by spring storms, Arctic intrusions, and occasional warm Chinook winds. Denver’s high elevation, valley setting, and urban/rural differences mean the same date can produce anything from wintry lows to mild nights depending on synoptic conditions.
Market odds reflect the collective assessment of available information and the event’s settlement rules; interpret them as relative market expectations among the discrete outcomes rather than fixed physical certainties.
The market will settle to the official observation source named in the contract’s settlement rules; typically that is the National Weather Service/NOAA observation for the designated Denver station (often Denver International Airport), so check the event page for the precise station and dataset.
The applicable 24‑hour window (local calendar date) is specified in the settlement rules—most contracts use midnight-to-midnight local time for the designated station; verify whether the market uses standard or daylight local time in its documentation.
Settlement follows the official daily minimum as reported by the referenced dataset or station (i.e., the officially recorded daily low for that date), not a trader-calculated average; consult the settlement source for specifics on reporting cadence.
The contract’s settlement policy specifies whether initial or post-QC/reanalysis values apply; many markets use the final official value from the referenced dataset, so review the event’s rules to see how revisions are handled.
Yes; temperatures vary across the metro area. The market will use the designated official station for settlement, which may not match other local reports—traders should account for systematic biases between the chosen station and other locations within Denver.