| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the lowest air temperature recorded in Denver on March 24, 2026; it matters for weather-sensitive planning (energy, transportation, events) and as a short-term signal of springtime variability.
Late March in Denver is a transitional period when Pacific storm systems, mountain snowpack, and occasional Arctic intrusions can produce a wide range of lows from seasonable to unusually cold. Local factors such as overnight radiational cooling, cloud cover, and recent snowfall amplify day-to-day variability; historical variability makes precise forecasting dependent on short-range model guidance.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations about which outcome will occur and update with new forecasts and observations; use prices as a real-time complement to meteorological model output and official weather reports rather than as standalone forecasts.
Resolution relies on the lowest reported air temperature for the calendar day March 24, 2026 as recorded by the official observing station and dataset named in the contract; check the contract text for the precise source and measurement definition.
The contract specifies the official station or dataset; if the page does not list it explicitly, consult the market's rule text—many Denver-oriented contracts use the National Weather Service/NOAA observations from Denver International Airport or the designated NWS daily summary for Denver.
Most contracts use the local calendar day at the specified observing site (March 24, 0000–2359 local time) and follow the timestamping convention named in the contract—verify the contract for the exact time zone and window.
Short-range model runs, radar/satellite updates, and new surface observations can shift expectations about cloud cover, frontal timing, and snow, which traders incorporate into prices; active weather days often produce larger and faster price moves as forecasts evolve.
Yes—official datasets can be subject to adjustments or metadata changes; the market resolves according to the named official source and the contract's resolution rules, which typically state whether post-season corrections are accepted.