| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which recorded temperature will be the lowest in Denver on March 23, 2026; traders buy and sell outcomes that correspond to possible low-temperature ranges. The result is useful for people with weather-sensitive plans, energy demand expectations, and local climate interest.
Denver has a semi-arid, high-elevation climate with large day-to-night swings, and March is a transition month that can still produce late-season cold snaps or milder spring conditions. Single-day lows in Denver are driven by short-term synoptic patterns, surface conditions like snow cover, and local exposure of the observing station. Because conditions can change rapidly, markets on a specific date reflect evolving forecasts and observations in the days leading up to the target date.
Market prices reflect traders' consensus views about which outcome will be observed and update as new forecast models and observations arrive. Treat prices as a dynamic indicator of collective expectation, not a fixed prediction—check the event rules to see the official data source and settlement method.
The event's rules specify the official data source and measurement method; typically the settled value is the lowest recorded air temperature from the named observing station during the local 24-hour period, so check the event page for the precise station and reporting standard used for settlement.
The listed close time for this event is TBD—refer to the market page for the finalized close; markets frequently close at or shortly after the end of the observation period or at a time stated in the event rules to prevent trades based on already available final data.
Fresh model guidance, high-resolution forecasts, and official NWS advisories can shift trader expectations quickly in the day or two before the date, so prices often move in response to late-arriving synoptic details like frontal timing, cloud cover forecasts, and updated ensemble spreads.
Settlement procedures are governed by the event rules: markets typically defer to the named authoritative source (for example an NWS official record) and may use backup sources, a data-quality determination, or cancellation/adjudication protocols if the primary data are compromised—check the event's dispute and contingencies section.
Very important—different stations (airport, downtown, suburban) have distinct microclimates and instrument exposures that affect overnight lows; confirm which site the market uses because urban heat island, elevation, and siting influence the settled value.