| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the minimum air temperature recorded in Denver on March 22, 2026 will be. It matters to traders and observers because it captures a single-day extreme in a high-variability, high-elevation climate and is useful for hedging weather exposure or testing forecast models.
Denver sits at roughly one mile elevation and experiences large day-to-day temperature swings in late March as winter-to-spring transitions occur; the city can see anything from sub-freezing nights to mild, springlike lows. Historical late-March conditions are influenced by Arctic air intrusions, Pacific storm systems, and local effects like downslope warming or cold-air pooling, all of which create meaningful uncertainty for a single-date low-temperature outcome.
Market prices represent collective trader assessments about which discrete temperature outcome will be observed on that date, not a guaranteed prediction; they should be read as a real-time signal that complements, but does not replace, official meteorological observations.
Settlement uses the observation source and local-time window specified in the market's official settlement rules; traders should check the event page for the named station (or agency) and whether the metric is the official minimum over the civil date in Denver local time.
The listed close time for this market is TBD; settlement timing depends on when the designated observing agency publishes its final quality-controlled values—often available within hours to a few days after the date—so consult the market's settlement notes for the exact timeline.
Yes—short-range and ensemble model output helps form expectations about overnight lows and frontal timing, but remember settlement is based on observed temperatures, not forecasts, so use models to guide positions while relying on official observations for final results.
Historical climatology provides a baseline—late-March lows in Denver frequently span from below freezing to the low 30s Fahrenheit—so comparing current model guidance and synoptic forecasts to long-term averages helps contextualize whether a given forecast is unusually warm or cold.
Resolution of missing or questionable data follows the exchange's settlement policy: the market will use the fallback procedures named in the event rules (alternate official stations, post-processed values, or voiding the market) and traders should review those rules or contact the exchange for specifics.