| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six possible outcomes will be the lowest temperature recorded in Denver on March 21, 2026. It matters for traders and weather-sensitive stakeholders who want to hedge or speculate on near-term temperature variability in a major metropolitan area.
Late March in Denver is a transitional season with a history of large day-to-day swings driven by passing Pacific and continental systems, strong spring sunshine, and occasional late-season cold outbreaks. Historical climatology shows wide variability for this date, so forecasts and market expectations can shift quickly as model runs and observations update.
Market odds summarize the consensus view about which temperature outcome is most likely given current information; expect odds to move as new weather model runs, observations, and local conditions become available. Always consult the contract rules to see how the outcome will be measured and settled.
Check the contract's resolution rules; many weather contracts use the official NWS/NCEI daily observation for the designated Denver climate station (commonly the ASOS at Denver International Airport), but the market will specify the authoritative station or dataset.
The low is the minimum temperature recorded during the local calendar day of March 21 as defined by the contract (local Denver time). Settlement typically occurs after the official daily observations are published and any allowed revisions are processed—check the event page for the precise settlement timeline.
The six outcomes partition the space of possible minimum temperatures into mutually exclusive outcomes (either discrete values or contiguous ranges). The contract will state the bin boundaries, units (°F or °C), and rounding conventions—confirm those details before betting.
The contract names the official source for resolution; commonly this is the National Weather Service (NWS) / NOAA Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) or the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) daily summary. Preliminary observations can be revised by those agencies, and markets typically follow the official final record specified in the rules.
Timing of a cold frontal passage or synoptic trough, overnight cloud cover and wind speed, presence of fresh snow, and mesoscale effects like downslope warming or cold-air pooling are the most influential developments that can shift the expected minimum on March 21.