| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41° to 42° | 30% | 26¢ | 30¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| 34° or below | 1% | 1¢ | 11¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 35° to 36° | 24% | 16¢ | 28¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 43° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 50% | 17¢ | 49¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 54% | 7¢ | 45¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which of the listed outcome buckets will contain Denver’s lowest observed temperature on March 2, 2026. It matters because short-term weather outcomes drive trading interest and provide a real‑time consensus view of forecast risk for that specific date.
Early March in Denver is a transitional period: the region can experience late‑winter Arctic intrusions that produce very cold nights or Pacific/Chinook influence that keeps nights relatively mild. Denver’s high elevation and large daytime–nighttime temperature swings mean small changes in cloud cover, wind, or snow cover can meaningfully change the overnight low. The market resolves to an official observing station’s reported temperature, so the chosen station and its surroundings matter for interpretation.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders about which temperature outcome will be realized; they update as weather models, observations, and local conditions evolve. Treat prices as a real‑time summary of consensus view and new information rather than as a fixed forecast.
The event will resolve to the official temperature reported by the designated Denver observing station specified in the market rules; check the event description for the exact station (the exchange uses that station’s published data for settlement).
The lowest temperature refers to the official observations recorded during the local calendar day of March 2, 2026 (00:00 through 23:59 local time at the designated station); consult the event page for the precise resolution definition the exchange uses.
If the designated station’s data are missing or flagged, the exchange will follow its published resolution and data‑substitution policies (typically using validated NWS/NCEI observations or a predefined backup); review KALSHI’s adjudication rules for details.
An Arctic intrusion combined with clear skies, light winds, and fresh snow cover (enhanced radiational cooling) would favor an unusually low overnight minimum; conversely, warm Chinook winds or cloud cover would suppress lows.
The market close time is listed as TBD on the event page; outcome finalization happens after the official observing station’s data for March 2 are published and the exchange applies its resolution procedure — check the event page and KALSHI’s settlement schedule for exact timestamps.