| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome will represent the lowest temperature recorded in Denver on March 19, 2026. It matters to anyone tracking short‑term weather risk, operational planning, or testing forecast skill for a specific date.
Denver sits near the Front Range where mountain influence, Chinook winds, and fast‑moving frontal systems produce large day‑to‑day swings, especially in March during the spring transition. Historical March days in Denver can range from late‑winter cold snaps to rapid warming, so this single‑day event tests both synoptic‑scale forecasts and local mesoscale effects.
Market prices reflect the collective assessment of which outcome is most likely given current forecasts and observations; they are best interpreted as a consensus signal that updates as new model guidance and observations arrive.
Settlement will follow the official data source listed in the market rules—check the event's rules page. Many Denver temperature markets use the National Weather Service ASOS/automated station referenced in the listing (for example, the official airport station), but confirm the specific station and instrument on the market page.
The measurement window is the interval specified in the market's settlement rules; typically it is the local calendar day (00:00 to 23:59 local time) for the named location. Verify the market rules for the definitive observation period and any timezone conventions.
This market divides possible lowest temperatures into six mutually exclusive outcomes (bins). The exact numeric ranges for each outcome are listed on the market's outcome table; consult that table to see how temperatures map to each tradable outcome.
Final settlement follows the exchange's resolution and dispute policy described in the market rules. In practice, exchanges use the specified official observational dataset and may accept later corrections or apply a dispute window according to their published procedures.
Monitor short‑range numerical models and ensemble spreads for frontal timing, convective potential, and temperature trends; NWS forecasts and local airport METARs/TAFs for evolving conditions; satellite and radar for cloud cover and precipitation; and surface observations for snow cover and local wind patterns that affect minima.