| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome corresponds to the lowest recorded air temperature in Denver on March 18, 2026. It matters to participants who want to hedge or speculate on short-term weather outcomes and to those tracking forecast skill for late-winter conditions in the Denver area.
March in Denver is a transitional month that can produce large swings between winter-like cold snaps and milder, spring-like conditions; elevation and clear-sky radiational cooling both amplify temperature variability. Local measurements depend on the chosen observing station and how the platform defines the 24-hour event window, so historical context and recent model runs both matter for participants.
Market odds represent the aggregated expectations of traders and will update as forecasts, observations, and model guidance change; interpret prices as the market’s consensus view at a point in time rather than a guarantee of the final observation.
The contract specifies the official observing station and source used for settlement; check the KALSHI event rules or market page for the exact station and dataset (for example, a specified NOAA/NWS cooperative station or airport sensor).
The market’s settlement rules will define the measurement window (typically the local calendar date in Denver); confirm the start and end times and how daylight saving time is handled on the KALSHI market page.
Settlement procedures for ties or unavailable data are laid out in the event terms; common approaches include using the nearest reliable official station, provisional NWS/NOAA records, or specific tie-breaking rules — review the event’s settlement policy for the authoritative procedure.
Traders typically account for Denver’s high elevation, large diurnal temperature range, and frequent late-winter swings by weighting recent model runs, surface observations (snow cover), and ensemble forecasts to assess the plausibility of very low versus moderate overnight minima.
The closing time is listed on the KALSHI market page (currently TBD); in general, platform-specific closing rules determine whether trading stops before the measurement window begins or at a set time — confirm the listed close and consider that last-minute observations and short-range forecasts can move expectations significantly.