| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35° to 36° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 33° to 34° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded for Denver on March 17, 2026 will be; it matters for weather-sensitive decisions such as energy demand, agriculture, and event planning. Market prices aggregate participant expectations about that single-day observed minimum.
Denver has a high-elevation, semi-arid climate with large day-to-night temperature swings and frequent late-winter variability, so March temperatures can range from wintry lows to mild spring warmth. Historical records and recent seasonal patterns provide context, but short-term synoptic systems (cold fronts, Pacific storms) typically drive day-to-day extremes.
Market odds reflect traders' collective assessment of meteorological information and are best interpreted as a real-time consensus signal rather than a fixed forecast; they update as new model outputs and observations arrive.
Settlement typically relies on the official observing station specified in the market terms—commonly the NOAA/National Weather Service designated station for Denver (e.g., Denver International Airport); check the event’s settlement rules for the exact station or dataset.
The market will use the measurement definition laid out in its settlement specifications, which usually means the minimum air temperature recorded during the calendar day at the specified official station; refer to the event rules for whether instantaneous or hourly-averaged observations are used.
The lowest temperature is determined over the local calendar day for Denver (Mountain Time); because March falls after the annual DST change, the local time will be Mountain Daylight Time if DST is in effect—confirm the exact timezone wording in the market rules.
Most markets specify backup procedures in their settlement policies, such as using a nearby official station, quality-controlled reanalysis products, or NWS-verified corrections; consult the market’s contingency and dispute resolution procedures.
Use climatology and recent seasonal trends to set a baseline expectation, then adjust for current forecasts (model ensembles, surface observations, snow cover, and synoptic forecasts) because March can deviate strongly from historical averages due to transient weather systems.