| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 16° to 17° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 13° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 18° to 19° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 14° to 15° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 20° to 21° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature will be the lowest recorded in Denver on March 16, 2026, with traders choosing among discrete outcome bins. It matters for people and organizations that use short-term temperature forecasts for operations, logistics, or risk management.
Denver's location on the high plains and its elevation produce large day–night temperature swings and sensitivity to synoptic-scale air masses. March is a transition month when both late-winter cold outbreaks and early-spring warmth are possible, so historical variability and recent seasonal trends both influence outcomes. The event converts those meteorological drivers into a set of tradable outcomes for a single calendar date.
Market prices summarize collective expectations about which temperature range will contain the day's minimum; treat them as an indicator to be used alongside operational forecasts and model output, not as a substitute for official weather warnings.
Resolution will follow the market's stated resolution source and methodology; typically this is the official daily minimum temperature reported by the named observing station or the National Weather Service station specified in the event rules. Check the event page for the exact station, time standard, and measurement method used to determine the official low.
The market close time and the resolution timing are set by the platform and shown on the event page; resolution usually occurs after the official daily summary for March 16 has been published by the designated data source. Review the event page for any platform-specific deadlines and resolution delays.
The six outcomes partition possible minimum temperatures into discrete bins; each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature range listed on the market page. Compare outcomes by checking which bin contains temperatures consistent with official forecasts and model ensembles for the overnight period.
Useful historical context includes climatological March minimums for Denver, recent year-to-year variability for mid-March, record lows for early/mid-March, and recent snow-cover trends. Source these from long-term station records (NOAA/NWS/NCEI) and local climate summaries to understand typical vs. extreme outcomes.
Monitor medium-range models and ensembles (e.g., ECMWF and GFS ensembles) several days out, then shift to high-resolution deterministic and convection-allowing models (e.g., regional high-res runs, HRRR-type forecasts) within 48 hours. Also track surface observations, upper-air soundings, and synoptic analyses for frontal timing and cold-air advection.