| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22° to 23° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 19° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24° to 25° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 20° to 21° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26° to 27° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcomes will match the lowest air temperature recorded in Denver on March 15, 2026. It matters to traders and weather-interested participants who want to express views or hedge exposure to short-term temperature outcomes for that specific date.
Denver's weather in mid-March can swing from late-winter cold to rapid warm spells due to its elevation, proximity to the Front Range, and occasional Chinook (downslope) winds. Day-to-day outcomes are driven by the synoptic-scale pattern—frontal passages, Pacific storm tracks, and local snow cover—so historical climatology provides context but not a deterministic prediction.
Market prices reflect participants' aggregated information and expectations about the official temperature observation for Denver on March 15, 2026; treat them as a dynamic summary of current forecasts and observations rather than a fixed forecast.
The market will settle to the official lowest surface air temperature reported for Denver on March 15, 2026, using the settlement source and measurement station specified in the event description. Check the event page for the precise reporting station and any measurement conventions.
Settlement typically uses the local calendar date (midnight to midnight local time) for the reporting station unless the event description states a different window; consult the event details for the exact time window and timezone used for settlement.
The event listing shows 'Closes: TBD,' so trading will close at the time specified by the platform before or during the measurement window; settlement generally occurs after the official temperature for March 15 is published by the designated reporting agency—check the event page for updates on close and settlement timing.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature value or range as listed on the event page; the event description also specifies rounding rules and tie-breaking procedures (for example, exact reported value used or rules if the station fails to report). Review those settlement rules before trading.
Monitor official observations from the NWS/NOAA station serving Denver, short-range numerical weather prediction (high-resolution local models), synoptic forecasts (GFS/ECMWF guidance), satellite and radar analyses, and local weather services. Pay particular attention to frontal timing, wind forecasts (Chinook potential), and recent snow cover updates.