| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature outcome will be the lowest measured in Denver on March 14, 2026; it matters for traders, event planners, and anyone with weather-sensitive exposure in the Denver area.
Denver in March is climatologically variable, with frequent swings between warm, sunny breaks and cold frontal intrusions that can produce very low overnight temperatures. High elevation, dry air, and local wind patterns (upslope/downslope) all shape night-time cooling, and short-range numerical weather models plus surface observations drive near-term expectations.
Market prices aggregate participant views and incoming weather information; treat them as a real-time consensus signal rather than a guaranteed outcome, and combine market information with official forecasts and station data when making decisions.
The event is settled using the official observation source and methodology specified in the market contract; that typically means hourly or synoptic temperature readings from the designated official station listed on the market page (check the contract text for the exact station and measurement protocol).
The market close time is listed on the market page (currently TBD); settlement uses the observation window defined in the contract, generally covering the local calendar date of March 14 as recorded by the designated official station — consult the event rules for the precise cutoffs.
Outcomes correspond to the temperature ranges or values defined in the market specification; after the observation period ends, the official observed lowest temperature from the designated station is compared to those ranges and the matching outcome is declared the winner per the settlement rules.
Useful context includes Denver March climatology (typical overnight lows and variability), recent weeks' temperature trends, current snow cover and soil state, and historical occurrences of late-season cold snaps for the Denver area; these factors help judge how anomalous a low temperature on Mar 14 would be.
A $0 traded volume means no executed trades have been recorded yet; it does not prevent orders from being placed and the book can change as participants enter bids and offers before the market closes — check the live market page for updates and the order book depth.