| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to pick which outcome will correspond to Denver's lowest observed temperature on March 13, 2026. It matters because unusually cold or mild readings affect travel, energy demand, and short-term weather risk in the region.
Denver's early‑spring temperatures can swing rapidly due to intrusions of Pacific or Arctic air, mountain‑influenced synoptic systems, and local surface conditions like recent snowfall. The contract presents a set of discrete outcomes (six options) that partition possible low temperatures for that specific date. Resolution will follow the event's published rules and official observational sources identified on the market page.
Market odds reflect the collective expectations of traders about which temperature range will be the low on that date and update as new forecasts and observations arrive; they are not guarantees. Use them as a dynamic signal of prevailing weather expectations rather than a definitive forecast.
The market's close time is listed on the contract page (currently TBD); trades after the posted close will not affect settlement. The observation period and exact local time window used to define the lowest temperature are specified in the market's resolution rules—check the event details for the authoritative timing.
The contract's resolution section names the official observing station or authoritative dataset (for example, the national meteorological agency station serving Denver). Consult the event page for the precise source that will be used for settlement.
'Lowest temperature' is defined according to the market's resolution rules, which specify the local date/time window, measurement units (Celsius or Fahrenheit), instrument type, and any rounding or tie‑breaking procedures. Refer to the contract text for those exact definitions.
The six outcomes partition the range of possible lowest temperatures into mutually exclusive bins; when the official observation is available, the single bin that contains that observed minimum will be declared the winner and the market will settle accordingly.
Major drivers include updated numerical weather model runs, satellite and radar observations that change storm timing, late‑season snowfall altering surface conditions, and revised forecasts of frontal passage or cloud cover. Market prices typically adjust as these inputs change the expected timing and magnitude of the low temperature.