| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29° to 30° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 33° to 34° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° to 36° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 28° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 31° to 32° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Denver will be on March 12, 2026; it matters because it aggregates weather expectations and can be useful for risk management, event planning, and local operations sensitive to low temperatures.
Denver sits at high elevation with a continental climate that produces large day‑to‑day temperature swings in March, so late‑winter cold snaps and spring warmups are both plausible. Historical March 12 observations provide context for what’s plausible, but interannual variability (driven by synoptic patterns and larger climate modes) means outcomes can differ substantially year to year. Market participants will weigh recent model runs, observed trends, and short‑range forecasts when trading.
Market odds here reflect the collective expectation of traders about which temperature range will be the lowest on that date; they update as new weather model output and observations arrive. Use odds as a real‑time signal of market consensus rather than a fixed forecast, and check the market page for settlement rules and final determination sources.
Settlement typically uses a designated official observing site defined by the market (often the NWS/airport station or another named station); check the market description for the exact station used to settle this market.
The market will use the official 24‑hour period established by the designated reporting station (typically the local calendar day or a specific UTC window); see the market’s settlement rules for the precise hours.
The six outcomes correspond to predefined temperature ranges (bins) covering plausible minimum values for that date; each outcome represents that the observed low will fall into that specific bin.
Use historical observations to define the climatological range and frequency of extremes for Mar 12, then compare that baseline to current model forecasts and recent observations to assess whether conditions favor warmer or colder outcomes than typical.
The market’s settlement rules will specify contingency procedures (such as using an alternate official station, backup dataset, or NWS published determinations); consult the market page for the precise fallback protocol.