| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29° to 30° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 28° or below | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 37° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 31° to 32° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 35° to 36° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 33° to 34° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Denver on March 11, 2026 will be; it matters because temperature extremes affect travel, energy demand, and local planning.
Denver in March is a transitional month with large day-to-day swings driven by Pacific storm systems, cold continental air intrusions, and occasional warm Chinook events. Elevation, snow cover, and the precise timing of fronts strongly influence daily minima, so historical variability is high compared with midsummer values.
Market odds reflect the collective expectations of traders using the latest forecasts and observations and will update as new model runs and observations arrive; they are not a guarantee of the outcome but a real‑time summary of available information.
The market resolves to the official reporting station or dataset named in the contract's resolution clause; if no station is specified, many contracts use the National Weather Service/NOAA official observation for the Denver metro (commonly the Denver International Airport ASOS). Check the market's resolution text to be sure.
Most contracts use the local calendar date (00:00 through 23:59 local time) at the designated observation site; confirm the precise start and end times in the event's resolution rules on the market page.
This event shows a closing time as TBD; typically trading closes at or before the start of the observation period and settlement occurs after the official NWS/NOAA observation for March 11 is published — check the market page for the final close timestamp and settlement procedure.
Follow deterministic and ensemble model runs (global and high‑resolution mesoscale), short‑range guidance for frontal timing, satellite and radar for cloud/precipitation, upper‑air soundings, and current surface observations at the official reporting station.
Use long‑term March temperature normals and recent historical variability to set expectations for what's typical versus extreme, but weigh climatology against short‑term synoptic setup — the actual daily low is often determined by small differences in front timing, cloud cover, and snow state.