| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41° or above | 7% | 8¢ | 18¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 32° or below | 17% | 8¢ | 17¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 33° to 34° | 18% | 18¢ | 34¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 35° to 36° | 12% | 11¢ | 22¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 47% | 29¢ | 47¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 19% | 11¢ | 18¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market trades on the lowest observed temperature in Denver on March 10, 2026; it lets participants take positions on which temperature range will be the daily minimum. It matters to weather-sensitive businesses, researchers, and traders who use meteorological forecasts to manage risk or express expectations.
Denver's spring temperatures can swing quickly because of synoptic storms, chinook/downslope effects, and late-season cold fronts; March 10 falls after the typical U.S. daylight-saving clock change, which can affect local reporting times. Markets like this build on official observation protocols and historical climate variability, so participants should consider both short-term forecast guidance and climatological context.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of traders about which temperature bin will be the daily low; shifts in price are driven by new model runs, observations, and changing surface conditions. Use prices as a real-time signal of market consensus, while checking the market's settlement rules to understand exactly what observation defines the outcome.
The market will settle to the official observation source and time window listed in its settlement rules; check the market details for the specified station (often the National Weather Service station designated for Denver) and the exact measurement protocol.
The market's rules define the observation window (for example, a local calendar day or a defined UTC interval); verify the market page for the precise start/end times and time zone used for this event.
The market is structured into six discrete temperature outcome bins; the exact numeric ranges for each outcome are shown on the market page and are used for final settlement, so review those ranges before trading.
Monitor recent model runs (global and regional ensembles), short-range deterministic forecasts, and live observations leading into the day; ensemble spread indicates forecast uncertainty, while late-night observations and cloud/snow reports can meaningfully shift odds for the overnight low.
Participants include retail traders, weather-focused funds, and market makers; while large traders can move prices, liquidity and other participants usually moderate short-term swings—be aware of order book depth and recent volume when interpreting price moves.