| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46° to 47° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 41° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest observed temperature in Chicago will be on March 9, 2026; it matters because short-term weather extremes affect transportation, energy demand, and outdoor plans. Market prices reflect collective expectations about the outcome given available forecasts and observations.
Chicago March temperatures are strongly influenced by synoptic‑scale weather (arctic intrusions, Alberta clippers, or Pacific storms) and by local modifiers like Lake Michigan and snow cover. Long‑term climate trends shift baselines slowly, but day‑to‑day outcomes are still dominated by transient weather systems and forecast model agreement.
Market odds summarize traders’ aggregated beliefs about which temperature bin will contain the observed low; they should be read as a real‑time summary of information rather than a fixed forecast. As the observation time approaches, incoming observations and updated model guidance typically move market prices.
The market’s event description on the platform specifies the official observation source and station (for example, an NWS or METAR reporting station). Consult the market page for the exact station and data authority used to settle the market.
The settlement window (start and end times and the time zone) is defined on the market page; Chicago local time is Central Time, so confirm the precise 24‑hour interval and any cutoff rules listed on the event description.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature bin or category listed in the market’s outcome descriptions. After the official observation is posted by the referenced data source, the recorded low is matched to the bin definitions on the market page to determine the winning outcome.
Settlement follows the platform’s stated data and dispute rules: if the official data source fails or is later corrected, the market will use the platform’s fallback procedures (such as an alternate official source or adjudication). Check the market’s settlement rules and contact platform support if the situation arises.
Combine current numerical model guidance and short‑range observations (satellite, surface observations) with knowledge of climatological variability for early March in Chicago; forecast confidence generally increases as lead time shortens, and local modifiers like snow and lake effects can cause departures from broader model trends.