| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $34K | Trade → |
| 34° to 35° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 32° to 33° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 30° to 31° | 3% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 29° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market predicts the lowest air temperature recorded in Chicago on March 8, 2026; it matters for traders and for people and businesses exposed to temperature risk (energy, retail, transportation).
Late winter in the Chicago area can produce large swings between mild and Arctic conditions, so a single March day can still see temperatures well below or above seasonal norms. The market offers six discrete outcomes to capture a range of possible minimum temperatures; total volume traded to date is $10,388 and the market's close time is listed as TBD on the event page.
Market prices reflect the collective, up-to-the-minute expectations of participants given available forecasts and observations — they update as new model runs, observations, or synoptic changes arrive and should be read as evolving signals, not guarantees.
The contract settles based on the specific observing site and data source named in the event description (typically an official National Weather Service reporting station). Check the event’s resolution terms to see the exact station, instrument, and reporting authority that will be used.
The minimum is taken over the exact observation window defined in the contract (commonly the local calendar day or the NWS daily period). Review the event’s settlement rules to confirm whether the period is 00:00–23:59 local time or another specified interval.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a predefined temperature range (a bin) listed on the event page; after official observations are posted, the single outcome whose range contains the official recorded minimum will settle as the winner.
Short‑range high‑resolution guidance (e.g., HRRR/NAM where available), ensemble trend guidance (GFS/ECMWF ensembles), current surface observations from Chicago airports and mesonets, radar/satellite for cloud cover and precipitation, and NWS Chicago forecast discussions — focus on the timing of fronts, cloud cover overnight, and any accumulation of snow.
Settlement follows the contract’s stated fallback and dispute procedures and KALSHI’s resolution policies; commonly this means using corrected official data from the reporting agency or a specified alternate station and publishing a formal resolution note. See the event’s resolution policy for exact contingencies.