| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36° or below | 13% | 13¢ | 23¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 18% | 19¢ | 38¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 61% | 49¢ | 59¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 45° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature observed in Chicago on March 7, 2026 will be. It matters for weather-sensitive planning, energy demand forecasts, and traders who want to profit from near-term temperature moves.
Early March is a transitional month in the Chicago region, when intrusions of arctic air can produce sharp cold snaps but milder maritime influences can also raise overnight lows, so day-to-day outcomes are often volatile. Historical late-winter variability, recent synoptic patterns, and evolving seasonal snow cover all shape the baseline climatology for a given date. Local factors such as lake influence, snowpack, and urban heat island effects can shift the actual minimum observed at official stations.
Market odds here reflect the collective view of traders given current forecast models, observations, and climatology, and will update as new information arrives. Treat odds as a real-time signal of market consensus and uncertainty rather than a fixed truth.
The contract's resolution details the specific station and data source used for settlement; check the event page for the designated station and official data provider (typically an NWS/NOAA source) or contact KALSHI support if it's not listed.
The event rules specify the exact time window (for example, a calendar day in local time or UTC) and whether the minimum is taken from hourly observations, a daily summary, or another official product—consult the market's definition to be sure.
Traders commonly monitor operational models (ECMWF, GFS), ensemble spreads, high-resolution mesoscale models, NWS forecasts and discussions, hourly surface observations, snow cover analyses, and satellite/radar for cloud trends and frontal timing.
That depends on the contract's settlement rules: some markets use the preliminary reported value while others wait for the final quality-controlled record; check the event's resolution policy to understand whether late corrections can affect settlement.
Settlement timing follows the platform's procedures: after the observation period ends, the market will wait for the official data release and any specified QC window before finalizing—see the event page for the expected settlement window or contact support for specifics.