| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43° or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 34° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 35° to 36° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market lets traders express views on the lowest air temperature recorded in Chicago on March 6, 2026 — a short-duration weather outcome that matters for energy demand, transportation, and short-term risk management. Markets like this aggregate real-time information about expected weather conditions in a single, tradable price.
Chicago weather in early March sits in a transition season: conditions can swing between winterlike arctic intrusions and milder Pacific or continental air masses. Large-scale drivers such as the position of the polar jet, surface high-pressure builds, and incoming storm systems determine whether a given day is unusually cold or mild. Settlement for this event will rely on an official observing source specified in the contract; traders should review the event rules for the exact station and measurement protocol.
Market odds reflect the collective expectations of participants about which predefined temperature bin will contain the day’s minimum; higher prices indicate stronger market consensus that a particular outcome will occur. Use odds as a real-time signal of expectation, not as a guaranteed forecast, and cross-check with official meteorological forecasts and observations.
Settlement will use the official observing source named in the contract’s rules — typically the National Weather Service daily values for the designated Chicago station. Consult the event’s settlement source on the market page to confirm the exact station and dataset.
The event uses the minimum air temperature as defined by the specified observing network’s routine daily summary — commonly the lowest reported hourly or minute observation recorded at the official station during the local calendar day. The contract rules explain which measurement cadence is used.
The local calendar day at the designated observation site defines March 6 (from 00:00 through 23:59 local standard/daylight time as applicable). The market’s settlement rules state the applicable local time convention — verify those rules on the event page.
The event settles according to the specific source and revision policy named in the contract. Some markets use the first official daily summary; others use a finalized value. Check the event’s settlement and revision policy to know which version will be used.
The six outcomes are the discrete temperature ranges (bins) defined on the market page; each outcome covers a closed/open interval per the contract. Outcome assignment follows the bin boundaries exactly as specified in the event description, so review those labels and edge rules before trading.