| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41° to 42° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 92% | 80¢ | 91¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 43° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 8% | 7¢ | 13¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 35° to 36° | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 34° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the lowest observed air temperature in Chicago on March 5, 2026. Outcomes provide a way to aggregate expectations about a specific daily minimum that matters for energy demand, public safety, and weather-sensitive operations.
Chicago experiences strong temperature variability in early March because the region is in seasonal transition and is influenced by competing cold polar air masses and milder air from the south. Official daily values are recorded at the designated Chicago climate station and reflect conditions affected by synoptic patterns, lake effects, snow cover, and local urban influences. Market prices will evolve as model forecasts and observations are updated in the days before and on March 5.
Market prices indicate trader consensus about which temperature outcome is most likely and update as meteorological forecasts change; they are not a substitute for official observations. Use the market to gauge how expectations shift with new weather model output and surface reports.
Settlement will use the official daily temperature from the designated Chicago climate station as referenced in the market's settlement rules; market documentation typically points to the National Weather Service/NOAA observation for that site (commonly O'Hare). Check the event's settlement rules for the exact station and source.
The event uses the local calendar day for Chicago (local Central time) as defined in the market's settlement rules—i.e., the 24-hour period labeled March 5 at the designated observing station. Refer to the market's settlement documentation if a nonstandard window (UTC or a specific reporting period) is specified.
The settled value is the official air temperature reported by the designated observing station, recorded by standard meteorological instruments at the standard exposure height used by the reporting agency; the market follows the reporting agency's measurement conventions as described in the settlement rules.
If the immediate observation is missing or later adjusted, the market will follow the official final or quality-controlled value published by the designated reporting agency and the procedures in the event's settlement rules for handling corrections or gaps.
Final values are posted according to the market's settlement schedule, typically after the reporting agency releases its daily or quality-controlled data; the exact posting location and timing are given in the event's settlement documentation and on the market page.