| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35° to 36° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 37° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 33° to 34° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 29° to 30° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 31° to 32° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 28° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bin will contain Chicago's lowest observed air temperature on March 4, 2026; it matters for weather-sensitive planning such as transportation, energy demand, and outdoor events.
Chicago can experience large swings in early March due to clashes between lingering winter air masses and milder spring intrusions, and the Great Lakes often modify near-surface temperatures. Markets like this aggregate forecasters, model output, and local observations into a tradable expectation about an objective observed outcome.
Market prices represent the crowd's evolving assessment of which temperature range will be realized; they update as new forecasts, observations, and model runs arrive and should be read as dynamic signals rather than guarantees.
The market outcome uses the official surface air temperature reported by the designated National Weather Service/ASOS reporting station for Chicago as specified in the market rules; consult the event page for the exact station and data source.
The window is the local calendar day for Chicago (beginning at 00:00 and ending at 23:59 local time) as recorded by the official observing station; confirm the precise timezone convention on the event page.
Outcomes are determined from the measured air temperature at standard instrument height from the official observation; wind chill or feels-like metrics are not used.
The six discrete outcomes correspond to non-overlapping temperature bins specified on the market page; check the event listing to see the exact upper and lower bounds for each outcome.
The market follows the platform's adjudication rules, which typically rely on quality-controlled NWS final observations and, if necessary, secondary official stations or post-event NWS products; see the dispute and resolution procedures on the event page for details.