| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official minimum temperature recorded in Chicago on March 30, 2026. It serves as a data-driven barometer for regional climate trends and seasonal transition variability in the Midwest.
Chicago’s spring weather is notoriously volatile, influenced by the complex thermal inertia of Lake Michigan and shifting polar jet stream patterns. March 30 falls during a transitional period where temperatures can fluctuate significantly between late-winter arctic air masses and early-spring warming trends. Historical data for this date reflects a wide variance, making precise forecasting challenging due to localized meteorological phenomena.
Market prices reflect the collective assessment of weather models and historical climate averages, representing the consensus expectation for the specific temperature range that will be officially recorded.
The official reading is typically sourced from the National Weather Service (NWS) station at Chicago O'Hare International Airport.
In cases of official reporting failure, the contract terms specify fallback procedures using secondary NWS stations or official agency-verified data.
Yes, it refers to the minimum temperature recorded during the 24-hour calendar day of March 30, 2026, usually occurring during the early morning hours.
The thermal mass of Lake Michigan can keep Chicago's overnight lows higher in early spring if the wind is off the water, or significantly colder if the wind shifts from the north or west.
Yes, as the date approaches, real-time meteorological forecasts will heavily influence market participation as traders adjust to emerging storm systems or high-pressure ridges.