| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 33° to 34° | 74% | 72¢ | 83¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 31° to 32° | 15% | 14¢ | 19¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 26° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 27° to 28° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 29° to 30° | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket will contain the lowest observed air temperature in Chicago on March 3, 2026. Outcomes matter for traders hedging weather risk and for anyone watching short-term impacts on energy, transportation, and event planning.
Early March in Chicago is a transitional month when both late-winter Arctic intrusions and milder Pacific/Atlantic systems are possible; day-to-day lows can swing rapidly. Settlement for markets like this typically relies on an official weather-observation source specified in the contract (for example an NWS/NOAA station or ASOS/METAR report), so the exact station and measurement protocol are important context.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of which outcome will occur and update as forecasts and observations change; they are an information signal rather than a guarantee of the realized temperature.
The contract defines the official station and data source used for settlement; check the event's settlement terms on the exchange page to see whether the market uses a specific airport (e.g., O'Hare or Midway), an NWS/NOAA dataset, or another official observation.
Settlement rules specify the local-date time window used (typically the 24-hour period of that calendar date in the stated local time zone); consult the contract's timing clause to confirm the exact start/end times and time zone.
The contract will cite an official measurement protocol (for example the minimum reported by an ASOS/automated station or the official NWS daily minimum based on hourly observations). Review the settlement method in the contract to see whether minute-level, hourly, or other processed values are used.
Lake breezes can keep lakeshore locations warmer or colder depending on wind direction, and the urban heat island typically raises nighttime lows in built-up areas; the particular observation site specified in the contract determines how those local effects influence the settled temperature.
The contract's contingency and dispute-resolution language governs such cases; exchanges commonly refer to alternate official records or a defined backup procedure (for example using data from a nearby official station or a specified reanalysis). Check the event's settlement and dispute rules for the exact fallback steps.