| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° to 33° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° to 35° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcomes will contain the lowest air temperature observed in Chicago on March 29, 2026. The result matters for short-term weather risk management, energy demand planning, travel operations, and local agriculture.
Late March in Chicago is a transitional period when conditions can swing from near-winter to spring warmth; synoptic-scale patterns and local factors produce wide day-to-day variability. Recent years show a trend toward milder average temperatures, but individual late‑March days can still see strong cold intrusions or nighttime freezes, making this a low‑predictability, high-interest date for forecasters and market participants.
Market prices aggregate trader expectations about which outcome interval will match the observed minimum temperature; movements reflect new model runs, forecasts, and evolving observations rather than certainties. Use prices as a real‑time summary of sentiment and information, and always check the event rules for the official data source and settlement method.
Settlement uses the official reporting protocol specified in the market rules: typically the minimum air temperature recorded by the designated official observing station for Chicago during the observation period. Consult the event page for the precise station and measurement standard used for settlement.
The observation period and timezone used for determining the daily minimum will be defined in the market's rules; commonly markets use local calendar days (e.g., 00:00–23:59 local time) at the designated station, but you should verify the exact window on the event page.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature range or discrete value bracket defined by the market. Only the outcome whose bracket contains the official recorded minimum will settle as the winner; the market page lists the outcome labels and their boundaries.
Verification will follow the data source named in the market rules, typically an official National Weather Service station or another authoritative observing network. The market page specifies the exact provider, site, and any post‑processing rules for settlement.
Compare the market to climatology for late March at the designated station, recent year‑to‑year variability on March 29, and any recent anomalous patterns (e.g., persistent cold snaps or warm spells). Historical frequency of similar lows, snow cover records, and seasonality give perspective but do not guarantee outcomes for a single day.