| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22° to 23° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24° to 25° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26° to 27° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 28° to 29° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 30° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of several outcome buckets will contain Chicago's lowest observed temperature on March 28, 2026. It matters to traders and weather-interested participants because it aggregates expectations about short-term weather and extreme overnight cooling for a major city.
Late March in Chicago sits in a transitional season where cold Arctic intrusions can still produce very low readings, while milder Pacific or zonal flow patterns can keep nights relatively warm. Historical variability is high at this time of year, and daily minima can be strongly influenced by synoptic-scale systems, local lake effects, and surface conditions like snow cover.
Market prices reflect the collective view of participants about which temperature bucket will be the daily minimum; they should be read as a consensus signal about relative likelihoods rather than exact forecasts, and they can move quickly as new model runs and observations arrive.
Check the specific contract rules on the market page — resolution definitions typically cite an official data source and time window (for example: the lowest reported temperature at the nominated official station during the calendar day as defined in the contract).
The market's resolution rules specify the official station or dataset; common choices are National Weather Service observations at a named Chicago station (e.g., O'Hare or Midway) or an NCEI/NOAA dataset. Refer to the contract text for the exact source.
The market close is listed as TBD on the event page. Payout and official resolution occur after the market's specified data source publishes the relevant observation and the exchange completes its verification per its rules.
Follow synoptic model updates (GFS/ECMWF ensembles), timing of any cold front or high-pressure build, forecast overnight cloud cover and winds, lake-effect trends, and local NWS forecasts and advisories; these elements most strongly influence the overnight minimum.
The contract should state whether the day is defined in local Chicago time or another time standard. Note that U.S. daylight saving rules are typically in effect in late March, so verify whether the market uses local standard or daylight time for the specified date.