| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26° to 27° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 28° to 29° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 30° to 31° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° to 33° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the lowest air temperature recorded in Chicago on March 27, 2026. It matters because night-time lows on a late-March date influence energy demand, transportation safety, and event planning in the region.
March weather in Chicago is highly variable: the city can experience late-winter cold snaps or early-spring mild spells depending on large-scale storm tracks and air-mass origins. Local modifiers such as Lake Michigan, urban heat island effects, and recent snow cover often change the overnight minimum by several degrees from forecast model guidance.
Market odds reflect the aggregated expectations of participants given current forecasts, observations, and new information; they move as models and observations update and should be treated as a dynamic signal rather than a guaranteed forecast. For final settlement, consult the market's event rules and the official meteorological records named there.
Settlement will be based on the official air temperature observation identified in the market's event rules—typically the lowest hourly or minute observation recorded by the specified official observing station (see the market rules for the precise data source and measurement interval).
The event rules will state which observing station is authoritative; markets often use a National Weather Service/FAA ASOS or METAR site such as Chicago O'Hare (ORD) or Chicago Midway (MDW) as an example, but you must check this specific market's rules to confirm which station is used for settlement.
Unless the event rules specify otherwise, 'on Mar 27' usually means the local calendar date from 00:00:00 to 23:59:59 local time at the designated observing station; verify the time zone and exact cutoff in the market's rules.
The market's rules will specify units and rounding/precision (for example whole degrees Fahrenheit or tenths); consult those settlement rules because different markets and data sources use different unit and rounding conventions.
This market shows 'Closes: TBD' so check the platform for the announced close time; settlement will use the official post-event record named in the rules, and most markets have an arbitration or dispute window outlined in their terms to handle data corrections or ambiguity—review those procedures before trading.